Monday, July 28, 2008

O's, Yanks, Jones, Mussina

What is it with the O's against the Bronx Bombers this year. It seems as if the offense wakes up against the Yankees at least once a series. Tonight it didn't take long for the O's facing an aging Mike Mussina. In my opinion, had it not been for poor coaching at third base, the O's would have had a 5-0 lead before the Bombers even had an at-bat. Third base coach Juan Samuel sent Brian Roberts on a Nick Markakis double in which he was clearly out at home plate. Regardless, the O's proceeded to bomb Mike Mussina just as they did on May 20. Moose couldn't get out of the sixth inning and watched the bullpen let up run after run to the O's to the tune of 13-4.

Adam Jones had a huge night. After making an out his first two times up, the O's rookie center fielder hit a triple to knock in Brian Roberts then, in his next at-bat, blasted a grandslam over the left field fence making the score 11-0 O's. In his fifth at-bat, Jones, still coming off the high of his first career grand slam, ripped a single. His final plate appearance of night could have lead to him hitting for the cycle, but he hit the ball hard for an out to center fielder Melky Cabrera.

I think, for Jones, this was a sign of things to come, as he knocked in five, got three hits and scored two runs while playing a flawless center field. In my opinion, the kid will be an All-Star within three years and hopefully the O's will lock him up long-term. For a 22-year-old kid with no major league experience he has sure looked terrific this year. He also seems very poised when the media talks to him. Maybe this is the start of something big in Birdland after all of the negativity that has surrounded the team over the last 10 years. I sure hope so.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Starting Pitching and the Bullpen

The Orioles starting rotation, except for 28-year-old Jeremy Guthrie, has been struggling mightily this season. As a staff the O's lead the majors in bases on balls and are top-5 in giving up home runs. A weary bullpen is bound to break down due to the inconsistency of the starting pitching that has defined the Orioles at the end of June and most of July.

At the beginning of the season the pitching was outstanding, but as the season has gone on and the weather has gotten warmer, the bullpen arms have gotten more and more tired. Having inconsistent starters has also become a detriment to the hitters as well. The pitching staff is tired forcing manager Dave Trembley to carry an unorthodox staff of 13 pitchers instead of 12 or 11. With the O's only having a three man bench, it really limits what Trembley can do in the later innings.

Hopefully, if Brian Matusz signs, and some of the Double-A kids are ready next year, the Orioles starting staff will be better than it has been for the past few years.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Random Blue Bird Droppings

Alright. American League East battle, here we come. Talk about a meeting of powerhouses. A game between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays is pretty much the equivalent of Spock and Kirk dueling each other to the death, so buckle up as we play catch up with the Jays ahead of this oh-so-very-pivotal series.

Batting Ninth

In his latest blog entry the always inquisitive Jordan Bastian asks if he's the only one in favour of moving Adam Lind up in the order.

No, you're not. I'm thrilled to death that Cito Gaston has the authority to demand that Lind be on his team, but hitting the team's highest OPS bat in the ninth spot seems as ridiculous as letting J.P. Ricciardi manage the squad.

The Tao Has Our Back

My blogging buddy at The Tao of Stieb has officially joined me in my love for A.J. Burnett. The puma looking right hander received the Tao's support after the Sun's Steve Simmons gave further evidence as to why that Pulitzer Prize has remained so elusive.

Simmons basically echoes the thoughts of the morons who hate Burnett for being a .500 pitcher by blaming Pete Puma for Friday night's 2-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. What an incompetent pitcher, allowing two runs over seven innings.

The Tao mentioned my other blog's proclivity for comparing Burnett and Roy Halladay and measuring the difference in fan reaction that the two pitchers get. Imagine if Burnett had made Halladay's All-Star break comments. He'd have a treacherous traitor label on him faster than you can say Benedict Arnold. Roy Halladay says it, and fans start phoning sports talk radio shows suggesting that the Jays should trade Halladay for our ace's own sake.

The King of Queen

Mel Queen has been hired by the Blue Jays to evaluate the farm system. Judging by the last few misconstrued sentences at the end of Hall of Fame nominee Bob Elliot's article on Queen, I'd wager a guess that Mr. Elliot is blowing this hiring out of a higher proportion than his own blood alcohol level before he starts up his vehicle.

Whatever the trickle down effect, Mel Queen showing up at the Mattick Complex will have more impact on the organization than the arrival of a first-round pick, four or five years away from the majors. Queen's arrival and the decision to bring him back will have an impact on the product you see on the field at 1 Blue Jays Way.

Really? You honestly believe that someone resembling one of those muppets that sit up in the balcony seats (i.e. Ted Rogers) is actually going to impact the baseball team by traveling around Upstate New York and Western Florida? Or maybe . . . just maybe . . . one of the conditions of Cito Gaston's hiring was for Mel Queen to also come aboard.

I'm sure there are more menial jobs to give a guy in a baseball organization, like hitting coach, but honestly, I'm sure Ricciardi isn't losing any sleep over the potential fall out of a negative Mel Queen report.

Painting The Corners

Well, apparently Brandon League really was trying to hit Dioner Navarro when he plunked the catcher on Saturday. According to Mike Wilner:

I know I said yesterday that I didn’t think that League hit Navarro intentionally and made a crack about his lack of control, but it turns out that he did. Gaston said as much in his pre-game interview with Jerry. Cito didn’t like that Navarro dropped down a bunt with a five-run lead two batters after Evan Longoria hit his slam off Roy Halladay. I forgot that the Jays were being run by an old-school manager, that five-run leads used to be really big, and that there’s an unwritten rule against bunting with a big lead.

Yeah, I'm going to have to side with Joe Maddon on this one. But I'm not happy about siding with him. Not happy at all.

I really disagree with what they did. We'll stop trying to score runs when they stop trying. Maybe in 1922 you wouldn't do that because nobody could hit a home run. But in the year 2008, people can hit home runs. You see how they came back. Once again in baseball, for me, there are moments when people definitely mentally move at a glacier pace and they really have to get beyond it. It stunk.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Huge news out of Birdland

The Orioles made three roster decisions Saturday afternoon. Two that impact the immediate future of the club and one that effects the Orioles teams of the future. The O's decided to outright one-time starting shortstop to Triple-A Norfolk and he has 72 hours to accept his assignment. To take his spot on the roster the O's acquired Juan Castro from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for a Triple-A player. After acquiring Castro, the Orioles selected his contract from Triple-A Norfolk.

Another move that was made by the O's was they placed reliever Greg Aquino on the disabled list with a hamstring strain and activated reliever Randor Bierd from his stint on the DL with a right shoulder impingement.

The biggest news of the day, however, was announced by team president Andy MacPhail. MacPhail announced at a press conference, with Adam Loewen by his side, that Loewen will pursue a career as an outfielder after suffering a re-fracture of his left elbow. If Loewen, a one-time top pick by the O's, were to try and pitch again he would have needed 18 months to totally recover and he was not willing to put himself through that. The goal for Loewen to start his new career is the instructional league in the fall. O's fans wish him luck with his new career and would love to see him succeed because he is one of the nicest people anyone could ever meet. We wish him luck.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Dave Trembley and the Culture Change

Thursday night the Orioles returned from the All-Star Break with a 6-5 loss to the Detroit Tigers. This brought on a pre-game press conference with the media in which Trembley didn't seem too terribly thrilled with the media or his players.

It seems that some of the players are still making baserunning errors and making fundamental mistakes that Trembley has tried to instill since becoming manager last year. His goal is to change the culture of the organization.

So far it seems successful, but there's still a lot of ball to be played.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Entering the 2nd half

A real misnomer there - we're already almost 100 games into the season.

But this is a discussion of what the Yanks may need to do to move into the postseason. Or what others will need to not do. As Melissa pointed out a ways back, the schedule doesn't favor the Yanks to overtake the Sox and/or Rays. That they made a great run last season from further back at this point doesn't say anything about this year. And it just doesn't feel the same - the problems that have plagued NY so far haven't rectified - they just seem to shift. Now Matsui is getting evaluated for possible season ending knee surgery, and Damon is struggling with a shoulder injury incurred on the "ball on the wall" triple by Youkilis - a ball if held could have turned the outcome of that game, but no easy catch - in the last Boston / NY series. The Yanks' world turns on Matsui's knee.

Offense has been a key problem for the Yanks. Inconsistent performances that the back to back 18 runs then shutout games against Texas then Boston exemplify. Or maybe that says more about Texas and Boston pitching. But poor hitting with RISP and too many low scoring games have spelled mediocrity. Injuries haven't helped. If Matsui's gone, the Yanks will likely need to trade for another bat - Xavier Nady could fit with his ability to play OF and 1B. But the price could be steep, as he also suits Tampa and other teams. The Yanks have been reluctant to part with prospects lately, but their surplus of pitching prospects fits Pittsburgh's needs well.

Unfortunately, none of those prospects seem currently ready to shore up the back of NY's rotation, held down by Sir Sidney Ponson and Darryl Rasner. Phil Hughes is likely out until August, Wang until September at best. Ian Kennedy is rehabbing in AAA now, but his season opening performance, like that of Hughes, gives pause. 2 other AAA starter prospects are on the DL. Jeff Karstens is rounding into form from groin injuries, but nobody sees him as a savior. 2 recently promoted prospects, Dan McCutchen and Alfredo Aceves, show promise but can they be counted on in the heat of a race? Then there's Kei Igawa. Hmmm.... not so much. And in AA all 5 starters are performing well, but that's a big jump into a playoff race. Again the Yanks may consider a deal, though likely for more of a mid rotation rental since 2 big candidates are already off the market. But parity has kept the market quiet - many teams can't decide if they're still in it, or are waiting to see if desperation ups the value of trade chips. Only Billy Beane has acted boldly, trading Harden despite being in WC contention. Could Blanton be next? Perhaps NY will muddle through with the 2 incumbents, mix in Dan Giese again - who's pitched well but sparingly in 2 starts and spot relief, or the org options will be enough. But it doesn't seem so.

The next 2 weeks will be telling, with series at home against those playoff contending A's and Twins, a trip to Boston, then home for Baltimore. 4 games with the Angels take us into August, followed by a 10 game road trip to offensively dangerous Texas, Minnesota, and Anaheim. Will the Yanks pull the trigger for reinforcements in the next 2 weeks? I find it hard to say no, being just 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, 6 for the division, and this being the Stadium's final year. Some help from the Rays (Can they keep pitching like this, and will their young collars get tight in this new territory?) or Boston (perhaps Eric Gagne again?) might be required, but may not be forthcoming. Still time - but none to waste. It'll be interesting.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

The All-Star MVP

Although I did not watch the entire All-Star game I watched enough of the extra innings to know who should have been the MVP. Yes, I know J.D. Drew hit a game-tying home run.

Also, I know he is a Boston Red Sox ballplayer, but if it were not for George Sherrill the American League would not have been able to win the game in the 15th inning. Georgie, as he is affectionately known to O's fans and players, struck out Adrian Gonzalez with the bases loaded in the top of the 12th inning.

After stranding three runners he came back out for the 13th and 14th innings allowing only one hit. Scott Kazmir came in to get the win, but Sherrill, technically a one inning pitcher, went longer than I'm sure manager Dave Trembley wanted him to so the American League could win the All-Star game and get home-field advantage in the World Series.

No offense Sox fans, Drew didn't deserve it.

The AL All Star closer fuss

The post game analysis is over, but one of the remaining strands of discussion flows out of the constant war of words that is the Yankees - Red Sox relationship.

Jonathan Papelbon - not always the most artful public speaker - set off a blaze in the NY media (particular the tabloids) and among NY fans with his press conference musings about the ASG closer situation. Of course Yanks fans wanted Mo Rivera given his due since the game was being played in the Stadium's final year. Papelbon acknowledged this, calling Mo "the Godfather" of relievers, then went somewhat astray in discussing his opinion on the role ("If I were the manager..."), that his manager was the manager, that the Sox were World Champs, "blah, blah, blah". Predictably his appearance in the game in the 8th was greeted with something less than applause. Overeaction? Of course. But predictable. Brethern in arms? The players may have felt such - fans have a different agenda.

The blogs in NY and Boston are waxing philosophically about the whole issue, as they will on any issue between these 2 clubs.

My take? Talk is cheap. Who deserved the spot and why?

As in all things in this regard, it depends on a number of factors. Rivera certainly had a case based on the location, its meaning, and his career as well as 2008 performance. Francona clearly deferred to this, going out of his way to give the hometown NY players their due in the game. And supposedly he had indicated his role to Paps prior to his comments which, while overblown in NY, were a bit off.

One of the problems here is the choice of data to evaluate. Is just this season relevant? Career achievement? Performance since last year's game? One issue I can't agree with Papelbon on is the relevance of his team's performance -the ASG is a reward for individual achievement. And to some extent a popularity contest. I'm going to demur on the 3rd option mentioned - which I'll readily admit could skew the discussion - since it seems the game has typically been discussed largely in light of current season performance, with career achievement tossed in in the case of veterans and circumstances. Clearly in this latter light it's all Mo, but let's go to the numbers.

The AL team included 6 closers - the top 6 in saves in the AL. The typical analytical data set isn't terribly sabermetrically based - saves, ERA, maybe wins. Blown saves, losses as negatives. WHIP and K measures for the data freaks. How do they stack up (in order if most saves)?

Apps. Saves Sv Opps. ERA Wins BS's L's WHIP K/9
Rodriguez 45 38 41 2.36 0 3 2 1.26 8.79
Papelbon 41 28 32 2.43 3 4 3 0.96 11.29
Sherrill 43 28 34 4.08 2 6 4 1.41 9.76
Nathan 40 27 29 1.13 0 2 0 0.93 10.44
Soria 40 25 27 1.47 1 2 2 0.72 9.63
Rivera 38 23 23 1.06 4 0 3 0.64 10.63

K-Rod is on pace for a record breaking number of saves. An estimable achievement no doubt - he should feel slighted by this whole discussion, yet his behavior upon being replaced in the 9th was gracious. Sherrill was in as a result of the team rep rule -being a lefty helped for game tactics too. He delivered, but his numbers don't stack up overall above.

Personally I'm not overly impressed by saves as a stat. They're often the result of opportunities - K-Rod has a large lead there with 9 more than all but Sherrill. Rivera has the most non-save appearances with 15 - Rodriguez has only 4. Clearly some element of this is outside the player's control. But since it's their job, how they perform at it is important. How often they fail is nearly as important if not more so. In this area Rivera leads, with no blown saves. Outside of Sherrill Papelbon has the most. But Mo has taken some losses in other games, so he's not off scot free. If we combine losses and blown saves (not completely fair since both often occur in a single outing), Nathan shows best. No losses!

In what I'd call "dominance stats" (ERA, WHIP, K/9) K-Rod slips a bit at 4th, 5th , & 6th. Rivera is strong at 1st, 1st, and 2nd. Papelbon comes in 5th, 4th, and 1st, Nathan 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd, Soria 3rd, 2nd, and 5th. If I were ranking these 3 stats by importance, I'd put WHIP first (guys on base are guys who can score), ERA (guys that did score), then K/9 (glamorous, but not necessary). But all 5 have been very effective across the board.

My take is, based on these 2008 stats alone, Papelbon might be the 4th or 5th best AL closer. I'm sure more detailed stats could change this look, and going back into last season could as well. I think good arguments could be made for Rivera, K-Rod, or Nathan being deserving. But I didn't hear them quoted - or "misinterpreted" - on the matter.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

More Injury Woes

Recently activated left-handed pitcher Adam Loewen has been placed on the 15-day DL with a reinjured left elbow stress fracture. This is just one in more of a string of bad news to the Orioles and their pitching staff.

Now they are looking for pitchers to bridge the gap to the eighth inning for Jim Johnson and George Sherrill. So far, the Orioles had avoided injuries, but it seems the bug keeps hitting them hard right before the break.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Sunday Blues

The odd streak seems to be continuing for the Orioles today. Coming into today the O's have lost 12 straight games on Sunday. If they lose today, which I think they will, they will have lost three out of four before their road trip against AL East rivals Toronto and Boston.

After the break they start an 11 game homestand against surging Detroit, improving Toronto and the stellar pitching of Los Angeles. The second half doesn't get any easier either, so it might be a tough run for Baltimore and its Orioles.

On another note, George Sherrill was named the Orioles All Star, while Brian Roberts is up for the final vote.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

The Burnett Trade Watch

Now that we've entered the month of July, it's time to dizzy ourselves with trade speculation like kids who drink too much Freshy in the sun.

Almost on cue, the Toronto Sun's Bob Elliot is reporting that the Toronto Blue Jays are shopping A.J. Burnett to any team that might need starting pitching and are willing to give up a shortstop.

While names like Edgar Renteria and Bill Hall have been bandied about, a website called Fake Teams has a kooky idea that caught my attention. They suggest that the Dodgers and Jays get together, with Burnett and David Eckstein going Hollywood in exchange for young Taiwanese prospect Chin-Lung Hu (transaltion: China Man Hu) and others.

While I'm fairly certain that this idea is absurd, the Dodgers couldn't seriously think that Eckstein would replace an injured Rafael Furcal (could they?), I do think that if they choose to move Burnett, the Jays will have to do so for a prospect, or else a player blocked for the foreseeable future on his team's depth chart.

Renteria, who seems to suffer from shittiness allergies in the American League, has an option for 2009, and at the age of 33 would be more of "win now" player, hardly the type of investment that the Jays should be looking for. Hall had an above average season two years ago, when he last played shortstop, but has since been more Marco Scutaro than Hanley Ramirez at the plate, while shuffling between centre field and third base in the field.

As I've mentioned on a certain other blog, the likelihood of Burnett opting out at the end of the season makes it hard to imagine Toronto's favourite son being traded to any team other than a contender. And the thing about dealing with teams in the hunt is that they're reluctant to give up talent that's already contributed to getting them to where they are.

Despite his recent success on the mound, according to another Jays blog, The Mockingbird, Burnett still has a ways to go before he can be considered a Type A free agent during the off season. So, a trade deadline move may not be a bad idea, but if Ricciardi can land a Major League contributing shortstop in exchange for Allan James Burnett, not only does he deserve to remain the Blue Jays general manager, he should be offered another contract extension.

Cot's Baseball Contracts has a list of potential free agent shortstops for next season.

Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors has some more ideas.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Stacking Up the Top Contenders' Schedules

Peter Bendix at Beyond the Box Score posted an interesting look at the strength of schedule of the current top AL East contenders (Sox, Yanks, Rays). With the Rays sitting atop the division standings, they obviously have the best W-L record in the East -- but Peter found that they've also arguably played the toughest schedule along the way. The Sox have also played a comparably tough schedule -- and the Yankees lucked out with a relatively easy schedule of opponents during the first half of the season.


 Tampa Bay Rays: 51-32 / .614% (68 games against clubs with .500+ record)
Boston Red Sox: 50-36 / .581% (65 games against clubs with .500+ record)
New York Yankees: 44-40 / .524% (41 games against clubs with .500+ record)

Looking forward to the second half of the season, the tables will turn -- the Rays will gain the benefit of a much easier schedule, the Yankees will face a significantly tougher slate of opponents, and the Red Sox can look forward to a slightly easier run.

Perhaps most telling: the Yankees have already played out their series with the Royals, Mariners and Indians, and will no longer have those opponents to feast on. Of course this also means that the surging Rays are on the downhill slope, and will be looking to cruise on through to the postseason.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

More Injury News

The Orioles placed left-handed relief pitcher Jamie Walker on the disabled list with an inflamed left elbow Monday. The move is retroactive to Thursday. It also allowed them to activate left-handed starter-turned-reliever Adam Loewen from the disabled list. Manager Dave Trembley will use Loewen as a bullpen arm the rest of the year.

George Sherrill, former set-up man for Seattle, now closer for the O's, blew another save last night. This time against Kansas City. It happened in the same fashion that he blew his save against Beltway rivals Washington, two strikes, two outs. These two games could be a huge turning point for the Orioles for whether they finish the season strong or they play out the string finishing slightly above, below or at .500.